The 2026 National Trade Estimate: “Leveling the Playing Field.

Coinciding with evolving U.S.–India trade discussions, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) submitted the 2026 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on Foreign Trade Barriers to the U.S. Congress on March 31. The annual report outlines the most significant trade barriers facing American exporters and details the administration’s approach to addressing market access restrictions around the world. In this year’s edition, USTR officials emphasized what they described as a growing shift toward more reciprocal trade practices and stronger enforcement mechanisms aimed at countering unfair trade policies.

According to the report, the administration has increasingly relied on a combination of established trade enforcement tools and statutory authorities to challenge foreign restrictions on U.S. goods and services. These include measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as well as authorities derived from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which policymakers argue provide additional leverage in negotiations with trading partners. Officials contend that a more assertive use of tariffs and enforcement actions has encouraged some governments to reassess longstanding barriers affecting sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and advanced technology.

The report also notes that tariff revenues have risen in recent fiscal periods following the expansion of trade enforcement measures and higher duties on selected imports, although it does not frame tariffs primarily as a revenue-generating tool. Instead, USTR officials emphasize that these measures are part of a broader strategy to address unfair trade practices and improve competitive conditions for U.S. producers. At the same time, policymakers have highlighted efforts to encourage companies to diversify supply chains and invest in production networks located in countries that maintain closer economic and regulatory alignment with the United States.

A key component of this strategy involves strengthening partnerships with allied and partner economies through supply chain resilience initiatives. In recent years, frameworks such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity and the Minerals Security Partnership have sought to promote cooperation in areas including semiconductors, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing. These initiatives reflect growing concern among policymakers about the concentration of strategic supply chains in a limited number of countries and the risks such dependencies may pose during periods of geopolitical tension.

Within this context, India has emerged as an increasingly important partner in supply chain diversification efforts. With its expanding industrial base and participation in regional economic initiatives, India is often viewed by policymakers as a potential hub for segments of the critical minerals and advanced manufacturing supply chain supporting next-generation technologies. Ongoing bilateral discussions between the United States and India have also explored ways to reduce trade frictions and expand market access across key sectors.

Taken together, the themes outlined in the 2026 NTE suggest that U.S. trade policy is continuing to evolve toward a model that combines traditional market access negotiations with broader geopolitical and supply chain considerations. Rather than focusing solely on tariff reductions or dispute settlement, policymakers appear increasingly focused on building networks of trusted economic partners capable of supporting more resilient industrial ecosystems. Supporters argue that this approach could strengthen economic security and reduce strategic vulnerabilities, while critics caution that it may also contribute to greater fragmentation in the global trading system.

References

India News Network. (2026, February 21). India and U.S. trade pact expected to launch by April 2026. https://www.indianewsnetwork.com/en/india-u-trade-pact-expected-launch-april-2026-20260221

Office of the United States Trade Representative. (2026, March 31). USTR releases 2026 National Trade Estimate Report. https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/march/ustr-releases-2026-national-trade-estimate-report

TCorp. (2026, April 1). Monthly economic report – March 2026. https://tcorp.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/20260401.pdf

The Washington Post. (2026, March 29). One year later, Trump has remade global trade — with mixed results. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/03/29/tariffs-trump-liberation-day/

The White House. (2026, February 6). United States-India joint statement. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/united-states-india-joint-statement/

Other News and Insights

The “Santa Pause”: AI Repricing and Policy Uncertainty Temper Year-End Optimism

December 18, 2025

As the final trading days of 2025 approach, the traditionally anticipated “Santa Claus Rally” has lost momentum amid growing investor caution. While the S&P 500 remains near record levels, the strong upward impulse seen in November has moderated. A combination of a volatile labor market report, mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, and a rotation away from high-valuation growth stocks has made investors more reluctant to increase exposure heading into the holiday period.

A central theme this week has been a reassessment of the so-called “AI trade.” Several major semiconductor and enterprise software stocks experienced renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, contributing to a 1.8% decline in the Nasdaq, its weakest session in several weeks. Investor sentiment appears to be shifting as market participants scrutinize whether current capital expenditure commitments can translate into near-term revenue growth. Oracle shares fell more than 5% following reports that financing for a large-scale AI data center project had been delayed, highlighting the increasing focus on funding discipline and return on investment. This shift in sentiment weighed on the broader sector, including Nvidia and Broadcom, reinforcing the view that future valuations will depend more heavily on realized cash flows rather than projected capacity expansion.

On the macroeconomic side, the Federal Reserve’s transition toward a more accommodative stance has been less straightforward than markets initially anticipated. The Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut last week, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, but the response across asset classes has been muted. Long-term interest rates, in particular, have remained elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.15%. This divergence suggests that bond investors remain cautious about inflation persistence and fiscal risks, even as the Fed seeks to support economic activity amid a labor market showing signs of gradual softening, with unemployment edging up to 4.4%.

Geopolitical considerations are also contributing to the cautious tone. While the “Kuala Lumpur Truce” reduced the immediate risk of renewed tariff escalation between the U.S. and China, broader strategic tensions persist. Recent reporting has drawn attention to China’s expanding role in maritime security operations in parts of Africa and the Indian Ocean, developments that could have longer-term implications for trade routes and regional stability. At the same time, China’s economy appears to have exceeded earlier 2025 growth expectations, with nominal GDP approaching an estimated $19.8 trillion, supported by strong exports in high-tech manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and renewable energy technologies.

Markets appear to be undergoing a period of cautious reallocation rather than outright risk aversion. Investor capital is rotating away from the most speculative segments of the AI complex and toward assets more closely tied to current economic activity, including energy, where oil prices rose modestly after the U.S. administration moved to restrict Venezuelan tanker operations. With key inflation data due shortly, volatility is likely to remain elevated through year-end. Much of the easy gains of 2025 may already be realized, suggesting that market performance in 2026 will depend more on earnings resilience and margin discipline than on multiple expansion alone.

References

Associated Press. (2025, December 17). More drops for AI stocks drag Wall Street to its worst day in nearly a month. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-ai-jobs-oil-d6a0aeeb54fd06320cb22f80e32eaa5e
Al Jazeera. (2025, December 10). US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in final decision of the year. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/12/10/us-federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-in-final-decision-of-the-year
Investing.com. (2025, December 16). Stock market today: S&P 500 closes lower as Oracle, Nvidia lead wobble in AI trade. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-muted-as-economic-worries-weigh-tech-remains-on-backfoot-4411717
Vietnam News. (2025, December 15). China’s economy beats expectations in 2025. https://vietnamnews.vn/world/1731893/china-s-economy-beats-expectations-in-2025.html
Eurasia Review. (2025, December 18). China Uses Privateers To Expand Influence In African Waters. https://www.eurasiareview.com/18122025-china-uses-privateers-to-expand-influence-in-african-waters/

The Truce That Isn’t: Markets Drift as Trade Reality Sets In

November 25, 2025

Global capital markets opened Tuesday in a cautious mode, signalling that the initial optimism around the so-called “Busan breakthrough” is beginning to fade. While the headline agreement between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping, officially described in the White House as a trade and economic deal with China, has averted an immediate trade war, the details are proving harder for investors to digest. U.S. equities such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed in the red on Monday, a weakness flowing into Asian trading where the Nifty 50 and Hang Seng Index are consolidating in narrow ranges.

The root of investor anxiety lies not in the headline agreement but in the fragility of the truce. According to the official White House fact sheet, the U.S. will maintain its 10 % “reciprocal” tariff on Chinese goods and suspend further tariff escalation until November 10, 2026, in return for China suspending the global rollout of its October 9 rare-earth and critical-minerals export controls and issuing general licences for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite. However, the Chinese side has confirmed only some aspects (e.g., suspension of the October 9 controls for one year) and not all of the general-licensing claims, raising questions about implementation. That gap between U.S. and Chinese interpretation underscores the limited nature of the “deal”.

In technology markets, the uncertainty is especially acute. The high-flying sector has been in suspended animation because key supply-chain dependencies remain subject to geopolitical risk. For example, while Chinese export curbs on rare-earth and dual-use materials have been paused, the pause is time-limited and not a full rollback. The echoes of volatility in companies such as Nvidia Corporation point to a fault line in the “AI trade” where geopolitics could abruptly cut off critical inputs.

On the industrial side, there are flashes of resilience. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) delivered a strong Q4 result, reporting $1.91 per share, which suggests demand for electronic-design and test infrastructure remains firm even as software valuations soften. This divergence, a bifurcation between speculative tech and the “picks and shovels” hardware reality, is likely to shape market behaviour through the end of the quarter.

Meanwhil,e the macro-backdrop remains blurred by a “data fog” caused by the recent prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown, which delayed inflation and employment prints. With incomplete information, the Federal Reserve Board is widely expected to cut rates in December, yet conviction among investors is low. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stubbornly elevated, implying the bond market is still pricing in “higher for longer” inflation risk that equity analysts may not have fully internalised.

The Bottom Line: The so-called “Trump Put” appears to have been replaced by a “Trade Truce”, but the floor it provides is thin. With the monthly derivatives expiry looming, heightened volatility is probable. Smart capital appears to be rotating out of speculative tech and into sectors explicitly favoured by the new trade framework, namely U.S. agriculture and industrial components, while waiting for the Fed to clear the air next month.

References

The White House. (2025, November 1). Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/

Times of India. (2025, November 24). Stock market today: Nifty50 ends below 26,000; BSE Sensex down over 330 points. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/stock-market-today-nifty50-bse-sensex-november-24-2025-dalal-street-indian-equities-global-markets-donald-trump-tariffs-india-us-trade-deal/articleshow/125530898.cms

Quiver Quantitative. (2025, November 24). KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES ($KEYS) Q4 2025 Earnings Results. https://www.quiverquant.com/news/KEYSIGHT+TECHNOLOGIES+%28%24KEYS%29+Q4+2025+Earnings+Results

Goodreturns. (2025, November 25). Stock Market Outlook Today, 25 November 2025: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Consolidate Ahead of Monthly Expiry. https://www.goodreturns.in/news/stock-market-prediction-today-25-november-2025-sensex-nifty-likely-to-consolidate-ahead-of-monthly-e-1471867.html

China Briefing. (2025, November 10). Trump-Xi Meeting: US and China Agree to Tariff, Rare Earth Concessions. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-xi-meeting-outcomes-and-implications/

Market Dynamics: A Tale of Two Sectors

February 2026 recruitment data from Wave shows a strong early-quarter uptick in activity, with job postings up about 39 % compared with late 2025, alongside increased applications and placements — a sign of renewed hiring momentum in several markets.

Despite this overall surge, imbalances persist across industries. Consistent with broader labour-market reports, health-care hiring continues to be a standout driver of job growth, reflecting chronic staffing shortages and rising demand, while other sectors are expanding more slowly.

Recruiters at firms such as Van Der Consulting face evolving challenges around verifying candidate skills for highly technical and fast-changing roles, particularly in AI and emerging tech areas. According to LinkedIn’s January 2026 Labor Market Report, the global job market remains sluggish in some regions with job seekers outnumbering openings and employers placing greater emphasis on skill-based hiring — especially where advanced technical skills intersect with human-centric strengths like communication and problem-solving.

Industry research also supports the idea that workers with AI-related skills continue to command a substantial wage premium. The PwC 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer found that jobs requiring AI capabilities are associated with an average wage premium of around 56 % compared with similar roles without those skills, and that demand for AI-proficient talent continues to outpace other job growth.

Overall, the labour market in early 2026 is marked by imbalances between sectors, ongoing shortages of specialised talent, and growing returns for workers who combine technical AI skills with strong interpersonal and problem-solving abilities

The Velvet Trap: Wall Street Toasts a Record Year, But the Bill Is Due in January

December 31, 2025

As the closing bell rings on the final trading session of 2025, Wall Street finds itself suspended between celebration and unease. U.S. equity markets have delivered another banner year, defying persistent warnings of recession, tighter credit, and geopolitical instability. Yet beneath the surface of record-setting index levels lies a growing sense that the rally has become increasingly fragile, sustained less by broad economic strength than by liquidity, concentration, and investor inertia.

The S&P 500 closed the year near an all-time high of approximately 6,896, marking an annual gain of roughly 17%, according to market data. The achievement caps a year in which large-cap technology and AI-linked firms once again dominated returns, masking weakness elsewhere in the economy. Few strategists predicted such resilience at the start of the year, particularly amid lingering inflation concerns and slowing global growth.

But as traders exit for the holidays, the prevailing mood is not exuberance. It is a relief.

From “Goldilocks” to a K-Shaped Reality

For much of 2025, markets embraced a “Goldilocks” narrative: inflation cooling just enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease policy, while economic growth remained intact. Over time, however, that narrative has frayed. What has emerged instead is something closer to a K-shaped economy, where asset prices and high-income consumption continue to surge while labor market momentum softens and lower-income households face mounting pressure.

This divergence has become increasingly difficult to ignore. Equity valuations reflect optimism bordering on perfection, yet measures of labor participation, job creation, and real wage growth have failed to keep pace with headline GDP figures. The result is an economy that looks strong on paper but uneven in lived experience.

Markets Send Mixed Signals

The final trading days of the year captured this tension. Major U.S. indices finished flat to slightly lower, as investors adopted a “wait-and-see” stance ahead of the new year and forthcoming guidance from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, gold continued its historic ascent, trading around $4,364 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a hedge against policy uncertainty and currency debasement.

The simultaneous strength of both speculative assets and traditional safe havens is an unusual and telling combination. When investors bid up growth stocks while also stockpiling gold, it often signals not confidence in productivity gains, but anxiety over the durability of monetary stability. In effect, markets appear to be pricing both optimism and fear at once.

Growth Without Jobs?

Beneath the index-level euphoria, cracks are forming in the real economy. Recent data show that U.S. GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, supported by high-income consumer spending and sustained investment in artificial intelligence and automation. Yet labor market gains have slowed markedly compared to earlier stages of the expansion.

Economists increasingly warn of a form of “job-light” growth, in which productivity gains and capital investment outpace hiring. This dynamic has complicated policymaking, particularly for the Federal Reserve, which must balance progress on inflation against signs of cooling employment conditions. Public commentary from Fed officials throughout the year has reflected this tension, leaving markets uncertain about the path of rates in early 2026.

A Fracturing Global Backdrop

The global context offers little reassurance. As 2025 draws to a close, multinational corporations are confronting a trade environment defined less by efficiency and more by resilience. Supply chains are being shortened, duplicated, or rerouted, not to maximize margins, but to minimize geopolitical risk.

China’s expanding industrial capacity and increasingly assertive trade posture have further complicated Western efforts to “de-risk” without triggering outright decoupling. Meanwhile, renewed trade tensions, industrial subsidies, and strategic tariffs have reinforced a reality many executives are only beginning to accept: the era of frictionless globalization is over.

This shift carries inflationary consequences. Building redundancy into global supply chains may enhance stability, but it also raises costs, costs that ultimately filter through to consumers and corporate margins alike.

Looking Ahead to 2026

As champagne glasses are raised across trading floors and corner offices, the outlook for 2026 remains deeply uncertain. Equity valuations suggest confidence in a benign outcome, yet the underlying risks, from policy missteps and labor market weakness to geopolitical escalation, have not disappeared. They have merely been deferred.

The much-anticipated “January Effect,” traditionally associated with fresh inflows of capital and renewed optimism, may take on a different character this year. Rather than a surge of buying, markets could face a sober reassessment as bond investors, returning from the holidays, demand greater compensation for risk in a world of elevated debt and persistent uncertainty.

2025 delivered impressive gains, but at a growing cost. As the calendar turns, investors may discover that the celebration itself was the velvet trap, and that the bill is coming due.

References

Trading Economics. (2025, December 31). United States Stock Market Index – Historical Data.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Investing.com. (2025, December 30). S&P 500 Index (SPX).
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500
RSM US. (2025, December 23). American economy is a resilient beast even as job creation slows.
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/american-economy-is-a-resilient-beast-even-as-job-creation-slows/
The Guardian. (2025, December 30). Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/30/five-charts-that-explain-the-global-economic-outlook-for-2026
China Daily. (2025, December 30). China becomes the world’s fourth manufacturing power.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/30/WS69538698a310d6866eb31397.html

The 2026 National Trade Estimate: “Leveling the Playing Field.

Geopolitical Pivot: US–India Trade Talks Begin as China Posts Record Surplus Amid Tariff Pressure

December 9, 2025

The global economic narrative today is shaped by renewed momentum in United States–India trade talks, set against new data confirming the structural resilience of China’s export machine, even as U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on Sino-U.S. trade.

A delegation from the United States, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer, is scheduled to meet counterparts in New Delhi from December 10–11, 2025, to begin discussions on the first phase of a proposed bilateral trade agreement. While some Indian officials have signalled optimism about finalising an initial deal by year-end, sources stress that this round may serve more as a preliminary or exploratory session rather than a formal negotiation. The broader ambition remains to reach the goals outlined under Mission 500, boosting bilateral trade to US $500 billion by 2030.

China’s Trade Surplus Hits Record: Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus has exceeded US $1 trillion for the first time ever (first 11 months of 2025), according to customs data, marking a substantial increase from 2024’s total of about US $992 billion.

In November, Chinese exports rebounded 5.9% year-on-year while imports rose only 1.9%, yielding a single-month surplus of roughly US $112 billion. Though exports to the United States fell sharply, nearly 29% in November, China seems to have offset much of the loss by diversifying export markets toward regions such as Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, and beyond. This outcome underscores the limits of tariffs alone in curbing China’s global export reach.

The US–India negotiations come at a critical juncture. Facing rising competition in global supply chains, India may view a trade deal with the U.S. as a way to solidify its role as an alternative manufacturing and export hub, especially amid China’s continued dominance in exports. Yet, whether this “first tranche” will materialize as a binding agreement by year-end, or remain preliminary, is still uncertain. On the China side, although the trade-surplus milestone is impressive, analysts caution that long-term vulnerabilities remain, including weak domestic demand, overreliance on external markets, and rising geopolitical scrutiny from other trading partners.

References

Beyond Compliance: Strategic Adaptation to the Era of Eco-Protectionism and Carbon Border Adjustments

The contemporary international trade regime is witnessing a fundamental reconfiguration, characterized by the convergence of aggressive environmental policy and protectionist trade measures. This phenomenon, increasingly termed “eco-protectionism,” represents a departure from the era of uninhibited globalization toward a system where market access is contingent upon environmental performance (UNCTAD, 2025). For global organizations, this shift signals that sustainability governance can no longer be siloed within corporate social responsibility departments; rather, it has become a central pillar of trade compliance and competitive strategy.

As the transitional phase of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) concludes in late 2025, the distinction between sustainability compliance and financial viability is rapidly eroding. Commencing in 2026, the shift from mere data reporting to mandatory financial liability for embedded carbon emissions will fundamentally alter the cost structures of imported goods, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as steel, aluminum, and fertilizers (European Commission, 2025). Consequently, firms that fail to accurately account for and reduce the carbon intensity of their supply chains face the dual risk of prohibitive tariffs and exclusion from the Single Market.

Beyond the immediate fiscal implications of European regulations, the rise of eco-protectionism is fostering a fragmented global market characterized by “green friend-shoring.” Recent economic analyses suggest that multinational enterprises are increasingly restructuring supply networks to prioritize jurisdictions with low-carbon energy grids and regulatory alignment, thereby mitigating the risk of future carbon tariffs from other major economies like the United States or China (White & Case, 2025). This geopolitical fragmentation compels organizations to assess geopolitical risk not merely through the lens of political stability, but through the metric of carbon diplomacy and environmental reciprocity.

To navigate this volatile landscape, multinational enterprises must transition from passive reporting to active supply chain decarbonization. Strategic resilience in 2026 and beyond requires the implementation of deep-tier supply chain auditing to capture Scope 3 emissions data with the same rigor applied to financial accounting (Dawgen Global, 2025). Ultimately, in an era defined by eco-protectionism, the ability to demonstrate a low-carbon footprint is no longer a reputational asset, but a prerequisite for maintaining global market access.

References

Dawgen Global. (2025). Emerging trends in global trade and investment for 2025 and beyond. https://www.dawgen.global/emerging-trends-in-global-trade-and-investment-for-2025-and-beyond/

European Commission. (2025). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Transition phase and definitive regime. Taxation and Customs Union. https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en

UNCTAD. (2025). Global trade update: Resilience under pressure. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-october-2025-global-trade-remains-strong-despite-policy-changes-and

White & Case. (2025). Overview of foreign trade 2025. Insight Alert. https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/overview-foreign-trade-2025

The New Trade Paradox: ASEAN Navigates Strategic Alignment Amidst Tariff Demands

November 19, 2025

The economic relationship between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is increasingly shaped by the tension between Washington’s push for deeper strategic cooperation and ASEAN’s emphasis on multilateral economic integration. Following the ASEAN Summit, the U.S. move toward more reciprocal trade arrangements has sought to influence regional supply chains by linking preferential market access with broader strategic commitments (Brownstein, 2025). Under this approach, ASEAN members that have formal agreements, such as Malaysia and Cambodia, and those participating through frameworks, such as Vietnam and Thailand, remain within the U.S. reciprocal tariff regime but may receive targeted exemptions. This has created a differentiated tariff landscape influenced by each country’s alignment track record rather than purely economic considerations (Dezan Shira & Associates, 2025).

This tiered structure places ASEAN in a difficult position despite its demonstrated economic resilience. While the United States is ASEAN’s fourth-largest trading partner, the region’s trade with China is more than twice that volume, underscoring Beijing’s central role in regional production networks (Heinrich Böll Foundation, 2025). U.S. tariff measures also aim to curb China’s regional influence by imposing higher duties on goods suspected of being rerouted or transshipped through ASEAN economies, prompting member states to strengthen their customs enforcement to address U.S. concerns over duty circumvention (Bangkok Post, 2025). These compliance requirements, however, clash with ASEAN’s heavy dependence on Chinese inputs and capital, generating both political sensitivity and operational challenges for states trying to maintain strategic neutrality (Bangkok Post, 2025).

At the same time, China is expanding its own regional economic footprint by advancing multilateral initiatives such as the upgraded ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA 3.0). The new framework emphasizes cooperation in digital trade, supply chain resilience, and standards harmonization, positioning China as a more stable long-term economic partner and offering ASEAN an institutional buffer against external policy volatility (ThinkChina, 2025). The broader geopolitical signal is clear: while ASEAN leaders still describe Washington as an important strategic counterweight, the more predictable and institution-driven nature of China’s economic engagement may encourage a gradual structural tilt toward Beijing if U.S. trade policy continues to shift toward short-term, transactional arrangements (East Asia Forum, 2025).

References

Bangkok Post. (2025). Southeast Asia squeezed by superpowers. https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/3137651/southeast-asia-squeezed-by-superpowers

Brownstein. (2025). President Trump Reaches Trade Agreements with Southeast Asian Countries. https://www.bhfs.com/insight/president-trump-reaches-trade-agreements-with-southeast-asian-countries/

Dezan Shira & Associates. (2025). U.S. Tariffs in Asia 2025 – A Regional Investment Map. https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/u-s-tariffs-in-asia-2025-a-regional-investment-map/

East Asia Forum. (2025). Trump tariffs tilt Southeast Asia towards China. https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/09/23/trump-tariffs-tilt-southeast-asia-towards-china/

Heinrich Böll Foundation. (2025). In A Turbulent World, ASEAN Needs to Do Its Internal Homework. https://th.boell.org/en/2025/07/18/turbulent-world-asean-needs-do-its-internal-homework

ThinkChina. (2025). ACFTA 3.0: The China-ASEAN deal that could shake US influence? https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/acfta-3-0-china-asean-deal-could-shake-us-influence

The Reshaping of WTO: Challenges and Opportunities for 2026

Our latest predictions on major currency pairs and practical steps businesses can take to mitigate exchange rate risk exposure.